PML reports Probable Maximum Loss

This report documents the results of investigations and analysis regarding the current structural condition and estimated Probable Maximum Loss (PML) of the subject property building. Probable Maximum Loss (PML) is defined as the damage to the building that has a specified probability of being exceeded within a given period from ground shaking as a result of seismic activity. PML values are expressed as percentage of building replacement cost in current dollar values, and do not include losses resulting from damaged building contents, social aspects, or business interruption.

We represent that the estimate of seismic performance for the property is based on a limited review of the property condition, and on a measure of engineering judgment. Additionally, our analysis employs the damage prediction method developed by ST-Risk and Degenkolb Engineers. It also includes fault and acceleration data from the ST-RISK computer analysis programs. Engineering judgment is a necessary component of this review since analytical methods do not exist that will encompass all parameters necessary to determine a precise estimate of the cost of any damage caused by a probable maximum earthquake of a given return period.

The seismic risk assessment performed is intended to identify major deficiencies that could result in significant losses during the facility’s life exposure. The purpose of this report is to provide a seismic risk assessment for the property based on Probable Maximum Loss (PML) statistical calculations. The assessment is completed in general conformance with ASTM E-2026 Estimation of Building Damageability procedures. The tasks performed for the seismic review are summarized below:

  • Unless the original construction drawings were available for our review, Odic does not perform any in-depth structural analysis of the buildings or detailed independent calculations. The scope of our review was to assess the basic strengths and weaknesses of the buildings from the standpoint of its overall structural integrity and earthquake performance.
  • Field reconnaissance is performed to confirm as-built conditions, to assess the state of repair of the structural components of the facility, and to identify structural modifications to the facility that might have altered their seismic performance. During the field reconnaissance, Odic does not uncover any concealed structural elements of the building and did not conduct any material testing.
  • The site seismicity is evaluated using published regional data. A site-specific independent geotechnical investigation by a registered Engineering Geologist is generally not performed since it is beyond the scope of this report.
  • The earthquake damage potential is estimated based on a scenario that has a reasonable probability of occurrence during the facility’s lifetime. The damage estimate is expressed as a percentage of the replacement cost.
  • Building contents (e.g., inventory and furniture) are not included in the PML analysis. Also not included are social losses (e.g., injuries and deaths) as well as indirect losses due to business interruption or fire following an earthquake.
  • It should be recognized that items other than those specifically identified in the report may require action. Furthermore, this review is not intended to preempt in any way the technical or professional responsibility of the original design consultants. All documents and data provided by the client or designated representatives of the client and those reviewed by Odic are referenced herein with the understanding that Odic assumes no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of such documents or data.
  • This evaluation represents Odic’s opinion based on the above criteria and a good faith effort to obtain all available information. The report is not intended to guarantee the structural performance of the facility in a seismic event. Rather, it is an assessment, based on statistical and historical data, and is intended to predict the way in which the facility might be affected by a maximum probable seismic event.
  • The earthquake damage potential was estimated for a scenario that has a reasonable probability of occurring during the lifetime of the facility, using the ST-Risk structural risk assessment application software published by Risk Engineering, Inc., or other similar assessment tools considered adequate . The estimated damage is expressed as a percentage of the replacement cost. The structural/seismic evaluation is a limited study intended to identify major deficiencies that could result in significant losses during earthquakes with return periods of 475 and 225 years.

This report has been prepared by ODIC for the Client under the professional supervision of the principal and/or senior staff whose seal(s) and signatures appear hereon. Neither ODIC, nor any staff member assigned to this investigation has any interest or contemplated interest, financial or otherwise, in the subject or surrounding properties, or in any entity which owns, leases, or occupies the subject or surrounding properties or which may be responsible for structural issues identified during the course of this investigation, and has no personal bias with respect to the parties involved.

ODIC’s liability to Client or any other person or entity with the express written permission of the Client wishing to use this Report is limited to the cost of the Report. Amendments to ODIC’s limitations as stated herein that may occur after issuance of the Report are considered to be included in this Report. Payment for the Report is made by, and ODIC’s contract and Report extends to Client only, in accordance with our Standard Conditions For Engagement, Authorization Letter and Agreement for PML Analysis Services.

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